Archive for February, 2009

Crude Oil Breaks $40 and moves towards $45/barrel

by: February 26, 2009

OPEC production cuts and a stalling U.S. Dollar are working to push the crude oil market through the $40 decade level and are quickly approaching the $5/barrel level.

The USD/CAD is falling as the Canadian Dollar strengthens against U.S. Dollar.  Crude oil is the reason for the move.

Look for pressure on dollar-canada bounces to short the [...]

Near Term Double Top in USD/JPY

by: February 19, 2009

As the Japanese economy continues to contract — it fell 3.3% in the fourth quarter compared to only 1% in the U.S. — is the yen overvalued? One sign of troble to come could be the rising cost to support Japanese bonds against default.
The rally in the USD/JPY is heading to a neat term top [...]

Swing Set Up on 240 USD/CAD

by: February 13, 2009

The USD/CAD has been trending higher on crude oil weakness and dollar strength.  The correction on the 240 minute chart is setting up a swing trade buy going into the heart of the Asian session.

This canada set up does have a limited upside as there is little support above teh 1.2500 psychological level.  This means [...]

Cable’s sell-off triggered (for a third time!) by this simple pattern

by: February 11, 2009

The GBP/USD sell off was triggered by a minor high (also known as a “dart”) formation on the daily chart.  The timing of this pattern is just as important as the pattern itself as it occurred as prices were piercing the top line of the Wave.
The minor high is a short term reversal pattern and [...]

The dollar bounces going into Tuesday’s stimulus plan unveiling

by: February 10, 2009

The U.S. Dollar is rallying into the Asian session and did so in anticipation of President Obama’s first prime time Q&A.  The dollar did peak at 8pm EST as the President took the podium.

It is expected in certain circles that a stimulus package that is able to pass a vote will weaken the dollar.  Either [...]

Is the USD/JPY telling us that risk appetite is returning?

by: February 9, 2009

The USD/JPY is strengthening for the second time this year.  The first time being the first week of ‘09 which could arguably be dismissed as a low volume time and thus a poor indicator of market sentiment.

The 92.00 level is still holding strong as psychological resistance however it is likely still too soon to say [...]

Non-Farm Payroll is a blip on the dollar’s radar

by: February 6, 2009

Non-Farm Payroll can hardy be spun as a positive number.  The number was a miss by 68k and the revisions were down…but that really doesn’t matter.  Look to price to tell the real story, which is, that this was hardly a price event at all.

The daily chart shows a slight uptrend cycle with excellent support [...]

Crude Oil, the Dollar, and the Dow

by: February 2, 2009

Despite the recent crude oil bounce, the market cycle continues to be negative to neutral.

Put the pieces together.  Barron’s recommending oil?  Hmm. Personal observation:  Most traders I know fade Barrons.  Or at very least, being a features on the cover is a bearish sign.  I have nothing against Barrons but I am sharing with [...]

Intermediate Time Frame Set Up on Fiber

by: February 2, 2009

The “2900″ level is offering a helping hand as resistance in the swing short set up on the 240 minute chart of the EUR/USD.
The 34EMA low is currently plotting at 1.2892 and is the trigger for the short entry.  With the current downtrend still intact, the swing set up is capitalizing on today’s move lower [...]