Archive for January, 2009

Cable Corrects to Resistance and Sets Up Swing

by: January 29, 2009

The bounce to the 34EMA low is the first opportunity to grab a correction play on the cable.  The short sets up as both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were enjoying some attention from the bulls.  Not so today, the weakness has resumed and — for the swing set up — the timing is perfect.  Meanwhile, [...]

The cable could fall further

by: January 26, 2009

The urge to try and catch a bottom is the psychology that seems to permeate any persistent trend:  The cable has been no exception.
Think about it a moment:  The only reason anyone would look to try and buy a “bottom” is if they are not already in the downtrend.  It’s a form of revenge trading [...]

Gold is congesting and waiting to breakout

by: January 21, 2009

The daily chart of gold has squeezed into a range and within a triangle pattern.

With most of the major currencies heading lower it’s no surprise that gold has enjoyed a resurgence in Q3 and Q4 of ‘08 and once again looking to breakout higher in January 2009.
Watch the 850 level for resistance as this level [...]

Crude Oil Expiration Month Throws USD/CAD a Knuckleball

by: January 20, 2009

Here’s a look at the the February crude oil contract.  The expiration of the front month contract has created a better than five dollar swing from the 32.70 low to the recent high of 39.28.

The 4:00am EST low coincided with the end of Asian/European overlap.

The New York session buoyed the crude oil market from the [...]

BOC Rate Cut Expected

by: January 20, 2009

…so now the question is “how much of this expected rate cut is baked into the cake?” A 50 basis point cut is widely expected and this would mean that the rally that has already occurred has factored this in and if the cut comes as expected the ceiling that is setting [...]

U.S. Dollar Index Climbs to 85.00 Level on ECB Rate Cut

by: January 15, 2009

The ECB cut rates this morning to the tune of 50 basis points bringing the rate to 2.00%.  Although this rate was discounted, it was the ECB press conference and Trichet’s comments that sunk the euro send the EUR/USD lower through the 3200 support level and the dollar index up through 85.00.

The break of 85.00 [...]

Aussie Turns Over…

by: January 13, 2009

The AUD/USD is heading lower as the U.S. Dollar Index is testing 83.50.  The strength in the dollar may have reached a short term ceiling.  The aussie has broken 0.6800 and if the dollar can continue higher — and that’s the big question mark here — the follow through can move lower to the 0.6500 [...]

Cable set ups a support play just above 4800

by: January 12, 2009

The cable is trading just above 4800 as the near term low (and subsequent bounce) was 4802 on January 7th. The set up would be to buy as close to the psychological level support between here — currently the cable is trading at 1.4829 — and 1.4902.  Some traders may feel comfortable entering a [...]

Swissy consolidates as U.S. Dollar flirts with 83.00

by: January 7, 2009

The USD/CHF is in an accumulation cycle as the U.S. Dollar moves around the 83.00 major psychological level and the EUR/USD, the “fiber”, is sitting just below the “3500″ level. There are a lot of players at key levels as the swissy moves sideways. A move in the fiber up through the [...]

What does the holiday price action do to this week’s set up?

by: January 6, 2009