Archive for December, 2008

EUR/USD Momentum Trigger Hit

by: December 22, 2008

The 60 minute chart of the EUR/USD is setting up a momentum short as prices weaken through the support of the 144EMA support.  The trigger is confirmed by the negative MACD Histogram reading.  The main obstacle to follow through lower will be the 1.3900 psychological support so even through the 144EMA is at the 1.3915 [...]

What will kickstart the greenback?

by: December 22, 2008

The safe haven play isn’t necessarily over although the debate continues.  The greenback has managed to bounce from 78.00 and break up through the key 80 decade level.  The question now is whether — by comparison — the U.S. is still where to keep you money safe AND at what price is it attractive to [...]

EUR/USD Rejected at 200SMA

by: December 18, 2008

The 200SMA is the single most psychologically significant moving average on any chart, most especially the daily time frame.

Prices climbed fast to the 1.4707 level/200SMA, making a high at 1.4719.  There are a number of resistance levels at work here.  After the 200SMA, there is the “00″ of 4700  - a major psych number in [...]

What do you do with a failed trade?

by: December 16, 2008

Let’s look at the recent swing buy set up on the USD/CHF.  You can read it here.  The dollar’s weakness pulled the chart of the swissy lower as the dollar lost ground versus the franc.  There is a lot that can happen as a trader gears up for a trade, but being being stubborn, falling [...]

The dollar-yen and Dow go their separate ways.

by: December 16, 2008

Today’s Fed Funds cut to 0.25%  sent the dollar tumbling to the 80 decade level and sent the dollar-yen along for the ride as the yen gained on the ever-weakening greenback.

The Dow in the meanwhile is still throwing a party with the Fed’s aggressive 75 basis point rate cut.  The Dow closed up 356.37 points [...]

Don’t lose sight of your correlations!

by: December 16, 2008

Market pulse analysis includes — first and foremost — the U.S. Dollar Index.  The recent and steep sell-off in the greenback has shaken the opinion and the dollar was the “go to” currency.  Now?  Not so much…

The Fed cut rates by 75 basis points which was discounted into the December Fed Funds futures contract.  This [...]

The dollar has broken the uptrend today.

by: December 11, 2008

The U.S. Dollar Index broke down through a key dynamic support level today as it sliced down the 34EMA low.

Pushed lower in part by a nearly four dollar move higher in crude oil, the dollar traded lower past the 84.00 support and it approaching the October 30th low of 83.10.  Today’s low was 83.28.  This [...]

The U.S. Dollar Tests Uptrend Support

by: December 5, 2008

The U.S. Dollar sold off during the early part of the session as comments from Bernanke sent the greenback lower.

The sell-off found support at the 34EMA high and just above the psychological support of 86.00.  The 34EMA high was 86.09 and today’s low was 86.095.  The uptrend is still intact so these corrections are not [...]

USD/CHF Setting Up a Swing Buy

by: December 5, 2008

The USD/CHF is pulling back to the top line of the Wave with support extending to the 38.2% at 1.1880.

The support of the Wave has been reliable support through the uptrend.  The Swiss Franc has been weakening against the U.S. Dollar even though the is range-bound below 88.00.

The Aussie climbs to an intraday shorting opp

by: December 2, 2008

The AUD/USD is climbing during the fist few hours of the Asian session.  

The sixty minute chart is setting up a swing short off the bottom line of the Wave.  This entry is layered with some excellent supporting decision levels.  The 0.6400 is overhead and this psychological level will be a great place for sellers [...]