Archive for October, 2008

EUR/USD and Fibonacci (it rocks!)

by: October 31, 2008

Take a look at this chart…while Fibonacci is a subjective tool…when you get it right it’s downright scary.

The bounce from the last major move lower came and hit the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level.  So now what?
The two ceiling here are the 25% and the 38.2%.  The 38.2 does have the 1.3300 psychological level acting as [...]

How high will gold bounce?

by: October 29, 2008

Gold has been bouncing over the past couple trading sessions.  This bounce is not likely to be a “flight to quality” as the U.S. Dollar still seems to be holding that title.  The Dow has travelled to the top of the October range, where it’s likely to find a ceiling.  
Gold could travel to the [...]

The patient traders wait for a kiwi pullback

by: October 29, 2008

The 30 minute NZD/USD has been climbing up the support of the Wave for two sessions now and the patient, trend following traders have had opportunities to buy pullbacks along the uptrend.
As we approach the Thursday Asian session open there is a good chance the 0.5900 psychological level will send prices down towards 0.5850 support [...]

USD/CHF Reaches Trend-Following Trigger

by: October 29, 2008

The USD/CHF has been pulling back with the U.S. Dollar Index and has finally reached uptrend support at the 34EMA high aka the top line of the Wave.
The uptrend is still intact despite the sharp pullback and the support at 1.1255 as well as the move back above the 1.1300 level shows the buying that [...]

Is the crude oil bounce weakening the dollar?

by: October 28, 2008

Crude oil is bouncing of yesterday’s fresh low at 61.30.  As crude oil is 1) attracting some buyers just above $60 and 2) moving highers on some shorts taking profits off the table…there is a near term high on the dollar index at 87.85 - 87.88.
The resistance intraday between 65.00 and 66.50 is thick enough [...]

AUD/USD Reaches the 0.6100 Level

by: October 28, 2008

The downtrend in the AUDS/USD has bounced to the key 0.6100 level.  
0.6000 is not a support level to underestimate however playing the short north of this level offers 100 pips before finding psychological support.
The 30 minute chart is transitioning to a sideways market cycle and this could be the beginning of a more lengthy [...]

Two Looks at the Dollar-Yen

by: October 28, 2008

While the 30 minute chart of the USD/JPY heads sideways setting up a potential momentum breakout, the three hour chart is firmly trending lower.
Looking at the short and longer term time frames for set ups on each is something that continues to work for the USD/JPY.  It’s a “one-thing-leads-to-another” scenario where a short-term potential break [...]

The U.S. Dollar Continues to Be the Safe Haven Currency.

by: October 23, 2008

Did the Euro “jump the shark” when Giselle wanted to be paid in Euros?  Whether that story was fact or rumor, it still represented the widely held belief that the U.S. Dollar’s good days were behind it.  And it wasn’t just a Victoria’s Secret model who punctuated this belief.  Small retail stores across the U.S. [...]

Double Bottom Test on the Intraday Kiwi

by: October 23, 2008

The NZD/USD fresh off it’s full basis point cut to 6.50% is seling off once again to test the low just below 0.5800 at 0.5777.
The set up here is play on the psychologicla level support of “5800″ that in this case extends to buying down to 5777.
The market cycle is trying to complete the transition [...]

The Short-term and Long-term USD/JPY Picture

by: October 17, 2008

The dollar-ten has been trading lower as the Japanese Yen had been gaining on the U.S. Dollar.  The sympathetic correlation to the Dow Jones has also brought selling pressure on the USD/JPY.
The downtrend continues to buoy back above the 100.00 the key level.  On the daily chart the trend following entry would be to wait [...]