Can the 60-minute EUR/JPY sustain the uptrend?

by September 2, 2010

If the 108.10 to 108.20 area can continue to support the shallow uptrend on the 60-minute chart of the EUR/JPY look for a continuation higher towards the previous high at 109.55. Chart date range 16-Aug 07:00 GMT-> 02-Sep 21:00 GMT Data Interval Hour Resistance Levels (B) 109.551 Last resistance turning point of Triangle. Support Levels (A) 106.237 Last support turning point of Triangle. (E) 106.162 Last support turning point of Triangle.

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Intraday GBP/USD Downtrend and Congestion

by August 31, 2010

A Channel Down was identified at 31-Aug 19:15 GMT. This an emerging  pattern and therefore is still in the process of forming. Expect possible bearish price movement towards the support at 1.53254. Chart date range 19-Aug 03:30 GMT-> 31-Aug 19:45 GMT Data Interval 15 Minutes Resistance Levels (E) 1.55969 Last resistance turning point of Triangle. (B) 1.535 Last resistance turning point of Channel Down. Support Levels (A) 1.53254 Last support turning point of Channel Down.

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The RBA and 60-minute AUD/USD

by June 1, 2010

Even amidst the RBA’s decision to halt rate hikes for 2010 and possibly even consider tightening towards the latter part of ‘10 there was a near-term bottom put on the AUD/USD along the 0.8380 level.

The AUD/USD has been in a sharp downtrend on the daily chart with the current exhaustion level at 0.8550. If prices can rally higher once again to that level, there will be selling pressure waiting. Intraday however is a distinct shift in sentiment from what was a downtrend to range-bound price action. Keep in mind that much of it is distribution that will lead to exhaustion at nearby highs and lows rather than follow-through.

Traders looking for an aggressive shorting opportunity can look at the shallow downtrend on the 60-minute chart and short into the 0.8370 to 0.8380 area. Beware of holding this short sell through 0.8905 where sentiment could shift to a markedly bullish intraday rally.

What does the current volatility in equities mean to the forex?

by May 26, 2010

The S&P500 started the day with a healthy pre-market rally and a strong open after the bell. The recent stability seen in the equities markets has not been bullish, though: instead, it is the result of prices congesting along the bottom of the range created by the sell-off on May 6. Despite that reality, sideways price action did have a calming effect on investors who feared a new low amidst the negative market sentiment driven by concerns over Europe. This morning seemed to put a renewed spring in investors’ steps – especially those who hoped the S&P500’s ceiling, at 1088.75, could be broken en route to a correction of the nine-day sell-off. Trading after 1:45 PM, however, proved otherwise.

The dramatic sell-off that occurred later in the session immediately raised eyebrows among those looking for a strong close, and fear – and the selling that comes along with it – rallied the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX was then able to find support between 27.19 and 31.07; in a bullish move prices rallied above the 31.07 high, which is in and of itself a break through past support (now resistance).

Fear in equities will keep the U.S. Dollar strong but be aware of the double top forming on the daily chart of the dollar at 87.62 and 87.55.

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Sidenotes

February 9, 2010

With the mark up cycle in place in the 30 minute chart, the set up to watch will be a correction to the the 34ema high as prices could pullback after topping out twice at the 1.3773 and 1.3764 levels.

Another consideration would involve using alternate support levels using psychological and Fibonacci support.  Here the set [...]

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